Yinlun shares (002126) in-depth report： the leading automotive thermal management leader
Yinlun shares (002126) in-depth report: the leading automotive thermal management leader
After sixty years of hardships and hardships, Yinlun, a leading automobile thermal management leader, is a private enterprise specializing in oil, water, and gas heat exchange. The main products are oil coolers and enhanced intercoolers for heat exchangers.The long-term company actively carries out the transition and upgrade of the transformation products, and at the same time continuously expands domestic and overseas commercial vehicle, passenger vehicle and construction machinery customers.The company’s customer structure is high-quality, and oil coolers and other products have entered the global supporting system of Ford, GM, Daimler, Cummins, and Caterpillar.In the past ten years, Silver Round has achieved a compound growth rate of 23% and has performed well. Traditional vehicle thermal management: Accelerate global replacement, new products gradually increase the amount of traditional passenger vehicle replacement products (excluding air-conditioning systems) worth about 1,400 yuan. In 2018, the global passenger vehicle thermal management market size was close to 100 billion yuan.The company’s sustainable commercial vehicle business started and gradually transitioned to passenger cars. Currently, the near-distributed revenue comes from passenger cars, which accounts for only 1.3%.Driven by three major factors: import substitution, overseas support, and independent rise, the company’s merger has room for breakthrough and improvement.1) Faster global replacement of oil coolers for fist products, and successively won new orders from Jaguar Land Rover, Renault and Dongfeng Nissan.2) Benefiting from the increase in turbocharged penetration rate, 成都桑拿网 the water-air cooler ushered in accelerated volume and won multiple large orders worldwide.3) Fuel consumption standards are becoming stricter, and the EGR penetration rate of passenger cars is gradually increasing. GAC passenger car EGR cooler orders have been obtained. In the future, both the cooler and the assembly will reach a certain market share. Commercial vehicle thermal management: The short-term EGR volume is rapid. In the long term, the market for overseas and replacement commercial vehicle thermal management is vast. The company ‘s domestic market share of oil coolers and intercoolers is as high as 45% and 35%.With reliable technology and high cost performance, it can successfully break through long-term overseas commercial vehicle customers.In the short term, the beneficiary country VI is upgraded, and the heavy 西安耍耍网 truck EGR market is rapidly erupting. The company is a major supplier of Weichai, Xichai and Sinotruk EGR coolers, contributing to incremental performance.In the long run, benefiting from the increase in the volume of overseas customers and the increase in integrated supply, the company’s commercial vehicle thermal management business has gradually decreased, helping to maintain stable growth. Thermal management of new energy vehicles: product upgrades, remodeling appearance, and long-term space. The overall thermal management of new energy vehicles can reach more than 5,000 yuan, which is much higher than traditional vehicles.Benefiting from rapid downstream volume increase and bicycle value increase, the global scale will reach 40 billion in 2023.The industry is still in the early stages of development. Depending on the market and cost advantages, local companies have improved. Sanhua and Yinlun are leading the industry.The company’s existing new energy vehicle thermal management products mainly include battery subcoolers, water-cooled panels, heat pump air-conditioning systems, etc., which have been matched with customers such as Ningde Times, Geely, BYD and received orders from GM, Volvo, Ford and so on.With technology and cost advantages, we are optimistic that the company’s new energy vehicle thermal management business has made continuous breakthroughs in new customers and new products, opening up long-term development space. Investment suggestion: Accelerate the global replacement of traditional main industries, and the large space for new energy vehicle thermal management development is the leader in automotive thermal management, using global expansion and category expansion to achieve sustained and rapid growth.1) In the short term, through heavy truck EGR, the overseas orders for passenger car production and the contribution of domestic new energy boom will increase, and the company’s operating performance will grow rapidly with high certainty; 2) In the medium and long term, the company’s restructuring will be competitive and accelerateGlobal alternatives, overseas orders continue to land, supplementing the new energy vehicle thermal management business with continuous heavy volume, and revenue will enter a new acceleration phase in 2021; 3) The company’s additional revenue growth is highly deterministic, and net profit will also show an upward trend in the long run: better profitabilityThe volume of joint ventures and overseas passenger car business will increase the overall gross profit margin, and the scale effect will continue to reduce the expense ratio.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.41, 0.49, 0.62 yuan, the corresponding PE is 22.5X, 18.8X, 14.9X, covering for the first time, give Buy rating. Risk Warning: 1. New product volume was lower than expected; 2. New energy vehicle thermal management business progress was lower than expected.